California Gas Price Clash USC Professor Warns of $8.44/Gallon by 2026—Newsom’s Office Fires Back

 

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Gas Prices in California May Skyrocket by 2026—But the Governor’s Office Isn’t Buying It

California's already sky-high gas prices could surge dramatically in the coming years—potentially reaching $8.44 per gallon by the end of 2026—according to a controversial new report by University of Southern California (USC) professor Michael Miscue. But Gov. Gavin Newsom’s office is pushing back hard, accusing the professor of stoking fear without credible evidence.

 California Gas Price Clash USC Professor Warns

In a report released on May 5, Miscue projected that average gas prices in California, which stood at $4.82 in April 2025, could climb as much as 75% over the next 18 months. His analysis cites upcoming refinery closures and state environmental regulations as major contributors.

Refinery Closures Could Reduce Capacity by 21%

Miscue points to the scheduled shutdowns of two Phillips 66 refineries in Los Angeles by the end of 2025 and the restructuring of a Valera facility in the Bay Area by April 2026. These, he claims, could slash California’s refining capacity by 21% compared to 2023.

“The consequences of the refinery exits could be devastating to California’s economic growth and global standing,” said Miscue.

He also claimed that California's high operating costs and what he calls a “hostile regulatory environment” are pushing oil refiners out of the state, creating a “death spiral” for the local fuel industry.

Newsom’s Office: “Fearmongering for Profit”

The Governor’s office isn’t buying it. Brandon Richards, Deputy Director for Rapid Response, called the report "fearmongering for personal and professional profits." He criticized Miscue for failing to present solid data behind his projections.

“There are a few vague references to models but no transparency on structure, data sources, or methodology,” said Richards in a statement to The Epoch Times.

In a strongly worded social media post on May 7, Governor Newsom went a step further, accusing Miscue of being “bankrolled by Saudi Arabia.” Miscue responded by confirming he had worked on a Saudi-funded project—but clarified that the initiative focused on economic diversification away from petroleum between 2019 and 2021.

“It had nothing to do with oil and gas,” said Miscue. “There’s no sinister motivation here.”

Professor Stands by His Findings

Despite the backlash, Miscue insists the findings are sound. He says he ran 20 to 30 model variations on future gas pricing in California, and every scenario pointed to an increase.

“The real issue is, the price is going to go up,” Miscue emphasized. “I didn’t do this for money or self-interest.”

Newsom’s Push for Fuel Stability

Amid the ongoing debate, Newsom’s administration appears to be balancing its long-term environmental agenda with short-term energy stability. In an April 21 letter, he directed the California Energy Commission to intensify collaboration with fuel providers to maintain a reliable and affordable fuel supply—even as the state moves toward greener energy alternatives.

🔍 Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)

Q1: Could gas prices in California really hit $8.44 per gallon?

According to Professor Miscue, it’s possible if refinery closures and restrictive policies continue. However, the Governor’s office disputes the accuracy and transparency of that projection.

Q2: Why are California refineries shutting down?

Several factors are contributing, including high operational costs, regulatory pressure, and a shift toward cleaner energy alternatives.

Q3: What is the state government doing to prevent gas price hikes?

Gov. Newsom has instructed energy regulators to work closely with oil companies to maintain a steady fuel supply during the state’s energy transition.

Q4: Is Professor Miscue connected to the oil industry?

Miscue denies any ties to the petroleum industry. He acknowledges prior involvement in a Saudi-funded project that aimed to diversify their economy away from oil.

Q5: When will the refinery closures begin?

The Phillips 66 refineries in Los Angeles are set to close by the end of 2025. Valera’s Bay Area facility will either close or restructure by April 2026.